How much stock to buy for your first kidswear season

'How many pieces should I make?' is probably the hardest question for a new kidswear brand. You have no sales history, you don't know which sizes will move, and every decision locks up money for months. Even so, the quantity doesn't have to be a guess. There is a simple method used in retail that starts from sales and arrives at stock, not the other way round.

Step 1: estimate sales realistically

For a brand selling online, sales depend on three variables: how many visitors you get, what percentage buy and how much they buy on average. As a hypothetical example:

• 4,000 visitors a month in season, from ads, social media and search;
• a conversion rate of 1.5%, giving 60 orders a month;
• 2.5 pieces per order, giving 150 pieces a month.

Over a four-month season that is roughly 600 pieces sold. Your numbers will differ: use real data from your social accounts, test campaigns or pre-orders, not hopes.

Step 2: set a target sell-through

No collection sells 100% at full price. Sell-through is the percentage of stock sold within the season. For a new brand, aiming for 60–70% at full price is prudent.

If you expect to sell 600 pieces and aim for 65%, total season stock would be around 600 ÷ 0.65 ≈ 920 pieces. But that doesn't mean making them all at the start.

Step 3: split the budget into a first order and a reserve

The rule that saves most new brands is not to spend the whole stock budget before launch. A practical split:

• 60–70% in the first order, across all styles and sizes;
• 30–40% in reserve, for reordering the styles, colours and sizes that sell.

In our example, the first order would be about 600 pieces, and the remaining 300 are made only after the first 4–6 weeks of sales. That way, if a style flops, you don't have 150 of it sitting in the warehouse.

Step 4: breadth or depth

Breadth is how many styles and colours you carry; depth is how many pieces you hold of each. With limited stock you have to choose:

• wide and shallow: many styles, a few pieces per size; it looks impressive, but sizes sell out fast and you lose sales;
• narrow and deep: fewer styles, well covered across sizes; less spectacular, but you sell more of each.

For a first season, lean towards the second. Eight to ten styles well covered in the central sizes outsell 20 styles full of gaps. Depth doesn't have to be equal across sizes either: put more pieces into the middle sizes and fewer at the ends of the range, then correct the proportions with your reserve budget after the first few weeks.

Step 5: turn pieces into fabric

Once you have quantities per style, calculate fabric. Let's assume 200 of the 600 first-order pieces are french terry sweatshirts and joggers for 2–6 years, using an average of 0.2 kg per piece: you need about 40 kg of fabric, plus cutting waste and rib.

For the collection's transition pieces we would use 210 g pink french terry in combed cotton with polyester and elastane. It sells in both spring and autumn, so the risk of leftover stock is lower than with strictly winter or summer pieces. You'll find the rest of the colours and weights across the french terry family.

Step 6: sourcing that makes the reserve possible

A 30–40% reserve only works if you can restock quickly. That means:

• fabric available in small quantities with no minimum order;
• a workshop that accepts short runs and has capacity in season;
• patterns and tech packs ready, so a reorder doesn't need fresh development.

Check all three before launch, not when the first style sells out. The pink french terry ships from stock in Afumați with no minimum, by the roll, so your reorder reserve can stay as cash in the bank until sales data tells you what to make. For a fabric calculation across the whole collection, send a quote request.